Cycles of History  

In their fascinating books Generations:  The History of America’s Future and The Fourth Turning:  An American Prophecy, William Strauss and Neil Howe outline a fascinating theory of generational cycles in history that has numerous implications for many subfields in psychology, including the psychology of personality, social psychology, abnormal psychology, and child development.  Below, I attempt to summarize their model and its implications.

 
The Saeculum

Strauss and Howe begin with the observation that a wide range of sociological, psychological, and economic variables -- from crime rates to attitudes about gender to vocational patterns -- are well correlated and track in tandem, in a generally predictable, cyclic fashion (see the figure below, where X = time, Y = some empirical variable of interest):

They note that the length of a cycle (e.g., from trough to trough or peak to peak) is roughly fixed over the centuries, and corresponds roughly to the length of a long human life (80 to 100 years).  They call such a cycle a saeculum (the same root word from which we get our more familiar term "secular", meaning transient, changing, and referring to the world of empirical, everyday experience, as opposed to the eternal, constant, transcendent, and metaphysical or sacred).  A human being born at the start of one saeculum might, if he or she did not die prematurely, expect to die in old age at the start of the next one.

The correspondence between the length of a human life and the length of a cultural saeculum is, they say, no accident.  The saecular turnings occur because of specific generational influences as outlined below.

Seasons and Cohort Generations

They note that just as a human life traditionally has four "seasons" each lasting about 20-22 years -- the "spring" of childhood, the "summer" of young adulthood, the "autumn" of midlife, and the "winter" of elderhood -- so, too, can the cultural saeculum be divided in this way.  The parallel is that just as humans are born, live, and die, so eras or epochs in history (the saecula) have a natural life span:  they are bounded by (begin with, and end with) a time of crisis, chaos, external threat (such as a major war), or ekpyrosis.  At the end of each saeculum, the culture must, in a sense, die and be reborn -- or fail to be reborn, as when an entire civilization ceases to exist.  The transformation in a society engendered by moving from one saeculum to another is so dramatic, so radical, so much of a "quantum leap" change that one might say that the society is born into a "new world".  (Hence, Americans still use the phrase "postwar" to refer to the contemporary era or saeculum, even though World War II took place nearly sixty years ago.)  As a nation, America has experienced three such ekpyroses or saecular crises:  the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II.  If Strauss and Howe are right, we are due for yet another one -- the end of the current saeculum -- somewhere around the year 2025. 

As Strauss and Howe use the term, a cohort generation is a group of persons born within the same general time period (usually about 20 years), who share the same set of defining experiences.  Because of the length of a cohort generation relative to the actuarial human lifespan, there are between 4 and 6 cohort generations alive in America at any given time.  As noted below, there are four basic types of cohort generations that recur, in Strauss and Howe’s theory of history, in a predictable, cyclic fashion.

Social Moments

A social moment is a key, defining time and series of events that shapes the entire culture and, in a significant sense, ushers in a new phase in history.  There are two contrasting kinds of social moments which, Strauss and Howe assert, occur in an alternating sequence:    

• Secular crises are outer-focused events that challenge the external structures of society.  (Often, though not always, there are wars, or other external threats.)  The most recent secular crisis in America was the Great Depression and World War II era (1930-1945).  Previous secular crises included the events leading up to and culminating in the Civil War (1857-1865), the Revolutionary War (1773-1789), and the Glorious Revolution (1675-1692).

• Spiritual awakenings are inner-focused events that challenge the internal values of society.  (These are internally generated events stemming from a perception that society has become too sterile and coldly rationalistic.)  The most recent spiritual awakening in America was the “Boom Awakening” (1967-1980).  Previous spiritual awakenings included the Missionary Awakening (1886-1903), the Transcendental Awakening (1822-1837), and the Great Awakening (1734-1743).

Note that the lapse of time between like social moments is about 80 years, or four cohort generations, in length.  This is no accident, as we’ll see below.  It also suggests that we’ll be due for another secular crisis around the year 2020 (give or take about 5 years).  Hence we’ll soon find out how valid Strauss and Howe’s model is… stay tuned.

Four Generational Types

Based on the above concepts, we can define the four generational types as follows.    

• Idealist or Prophetic generations come of age (adolescence or early adulthood) in a time of spiritual awakening, and reach elderhood in a time of secular crisis.  The most recent Idealist generation was the Boom generation (born 1943-1960).  The oldest member of the previous Idealist generation, the Missionary generation (born 1860-1882), died in 1994 at the age of 112.

• Reactive or Nomadic generations are children during a time of spiritual awakening, and reach midlife in a time of secular crisis.  The most recent Reactive generation was Gen X (born 1961-1980). A very few, very old members of the Lost generation (born 1883-1900), also a Reactive generation, are still alive.

• Civic or Heroic generations come of age (adolescence or early adulthood) in a time of secular crisis, and reach elderhood in a time of spiritual awakening.  The most recent Civic generation was the Millennial generation (born 1981 or later).  The G.I. generation that fought World War II (born 1901-1924), a great many of whom are still alive today, was also a Civic generation.

• Adaptive or Artistic generations are children during a time of secular crisis, and reach midlife in a time of spiritual awakening.  The most recent Adaptive generation was the Silent generation (born 1925-1942).  The first new Adaptive generation should (if current cycles hold) start being born around 2003 or 2004.

Because of the influence of social moments as mediated by the age (phase or stage of life) during which they are experienced by the different cohort generations, the four generational types tend to take on different personalities or values.  Of course, these are generalizations that apply only to the “group persona”, not universally to every member within a given cohort generation:   

• Idealists are visionary, individualistic, and spiritual.  Core values include principle, religion, education.  A typical weakness (as least as perceived by others) might be dogmatism (principles taken to excess).

• Reactives are rebellious, pragmatic, and materialistic.  Core values include liberty, practicality, survival.  A typical weakness (as least as perceived by others) might be amoralism (pragmatism taken to excess).

• Civics are heroic, collegial, and rationalistic.  Core values include community, technology, affluence.  A typical weakness (as least as perceived by others) might be insensitivity (rationalism taken to excess).

• Adaptives are conformist, sensitive, and cultured.  Core values include pluralism, expertise, and social justice.  A typical weakness (as least as perceived by others) might be superficiality (adaptability taken to excess).

What Fuels the Generational Cycle?

Why does the saecular cycle occur?  According to Strauss and Howe, it has to do with the fact that each generation instinctively corrects for the excesses of the previous generation, and in so doing raises its own children in such a fashion that the cycle will continue to turn.  Let's take a look at how this works.

During a Crisis (ekpyrosis or saecular Winter), when the culture is faced with a catastrophic external threat of such proportions that the culture itself may not survive (e.g., World War II), those who are children during this era are understandably raised to be obedient, to be silent, to conform, to basically get out of the way and not impede their elders (young adults) as they tackle the job of saving civilization.  Assuming that the challenge is successfully met (the culture does not die, but is reborn into a new era or saeculum), the young adults who are seen as responsible for this epic victory take on a heroic persona (Tom Brokaw's "Greatest Generation").  But something quite different happens to their children.

Rising to adulthood in a post-crisis High or cultural Spring, this generation -- the so-called Adaptive or Artistic generation, the most recent example of which is the so-called Silent generation (born between 1927 and 1943) -- faces an intriguing paradox.  On the one hand, outwardly they experience a time of tremendous optimism about the social order:  likely a time of economic prosperity, social cooperation, and tremendous technological progress.  On the other hand, they often feel as if they were "born too late" to emulate the "great deeds" of their next-elders, and feel relegated to an "also-ran" role in which they can, at best, be maintainers of a social system they did not build.  In addition, as time goes by, the dark side of the saecular High begins to show itself, in the excessive conformism of the times, the stifling of autonomy and dissent (e.g., the McCarthy era), and in what increasingly begins to be seen as a spiritual or cultural sterility -- a society that is outwardly (technologically) sound but inwardly devoid of values and meaning.

In reaction to this, Adaptive/Artist parents raise their children (the generation that comes of age during the High or Spring of the culture) to be inward-looking, value-driven.  The children are usually overindulged, at a time when economic prosperity is such that concerns about survival seem remote and rising expectations for each succeeding generation a given.  Coming of age, these individuals then respond dramatically, even violently, to the perceived value sterility and mindless conformity of the culture (they never experienced the cultural Winter that made these traits once a necessity and a virtue, and now only see their outmoded excesses).  The result:  a sudden values transformation, often explosive, pervades the youth culture in a time of Awakening or Summer (the Consciousness Revolution, the Summer of Love -- in a word, the 60's).  This is an Idealist or Prophetic generation (most recently, the Boomer generation, born between 1943 and 1960):  intensely inner-directed, value-driven, autonomous, idealistic, otherworldly, and generally contemptuous of "the Establishment" erected half a saeculum ago by their grandparents and so assiduously tended by their parents.

Committed to the values of individualism and inner-directedness, Idealist/Prophetic parents raise their children even more autonomously and permissively than they were raised, often to the point of neglect ("latchkey children"), partly because they are so preoccupied with the inner search for values and for social transformation of the value landscape of society that they can fail to be good parents, and because (raised in a time of economic prosperity when thrift and planning for the future begin to seem redundant and needless) they tend to focus on the now and/or the eternal, neglectful of the intermediate future of the next generation.  The result:  a time of increasing neglect of, if not outright hostility to, children (it is no accident that abortion became legal around this time), and as a result, a dramatic rise in social pathologies.  This generation of "neglected" or "abandoned" children, a Reactive or Nomadic generation (most recently, Gen X, born between 1961 and 1981), too young to remember the cultural sterility to which their parents were reacting, grow up in a world that seems to them an unsafe, amoral jungle in which only the strong and the pragmatic survive.  Certainly they feel that they receive little or no help, financial or otherwise, and have to learn to make it on their own.  Seeing the excesses of idealism, they often become tough, cynical, hard-bitten pragmatists and adventurers.

Naturally, having experienced a childhood of neglect, these individuals become determined to raise their children very differently, protectively and nurturantly -- at a time when their next-elders reinforce this trend because of alarmist concerns about the breakdown of society, as society's external structures appear to be splintering or falling apart (an Unraveling or Autumn, e.g., the "culture wars" of the late 80's and the 90's).  As the trends started in the Awakening begin to "go too far" and begin to be perceived as rampant individualism, hedonism, and amoralism, society clamps down and begins to look for ways to protect children and to foster collectivism, cooperation, volunteerism and the like.  The result:  a generation of valued children (a Civic or Heroic generation) that grows up believing in the value of order, structure, teamwork, and responsibility in the face of a society that radically needs fixing.  Currently, the Millennial generation (born after 1981) is the current Civic generation, the first wave of whom are just beginning to reach young adulthood.  The last such generation was the generation (born between 1901 and 1927) who, as young adults, fought and won World War II:  Strauss and Howe note many similarities between the young people of the Great Depression and today's Millennials.

Why does the cycle keep turning?  Why another Crisis, Winter, or ekpyrosis?  In part because aging Idealists or Prophets -- intensely value-driven as ever, with the natural inflexibility of idealism, and prone to see the world in black/white uncompromising terms -- are likely to respond to the social Unraveling by means of one last-ditch effort to respond to external threats in terms of a catalysmic, even apocalyptic, moral struggle:  the North versus the South (the Civil War), the free world versus the totalitarian menace (World War II), or... just maybe... America versus the terrorist axis of evil (the pending Crisis of 2025)?  At some point, these trends take on a life of their own, reach a point of no return, and society has little choice but to mobilize in the face of another impending crisis that threatens to engulf the entire culture.  We aren't there yet;  current events, sad and sobering as they are, are a mere harbinger of the Winter to come, if Strauss and Howe's model is correct.  It is late Autumn, not Winter.  But Autumn is a time to prepare, for Winter may soon be here.

If the Heroic generation of that era can rise to the challenge, the cycle will turn yet again and another saeculum will be born.  If not (as has happened, of course, repeatedly throughout history), that particular culture will die.  Cultures almost always fall to ruin, Strauss and Howe argue, during a badly managed Winter or time of Crisis -- the ekpyrosis point of a saecular turning.  Again, stay tuned for the year 2025 (give or take a decade).

Note that once every four generations, the seasons of human life (one generation's youth or Spring, young adulthood or Summer, midlife or Autumn, and elderhood or Winter) match the seasons of the saeculum or wider culture (High or Spring, Awakening or Summer, Unraveling or Autumn, and Crisis/ekpyrosis or Winter).  For this generation -- always an Idealist or Prophetic generation -- old age coincides with the (potential) death and (hopeful) subsequent rebirth of the culture.  Is this poised to happen again within the lifetime of most who are reading these notes?  Time will tell.

Resulting Generational Archetypes

Thus, each generation finds its core values defined by the unique experiences of its own youth:

• Idealists see themselves as shaped by the spiritual awakening, thus prophetic and spiritual (contra mundum or “principled rebels” as youth, “Grey Champions” as elders),

• Reactives see themselves as “abandoned” by a culture that has left them to “raise themselves” (hence they must become hard-headed realists focused on material survival),

• Civics see themselves as shaped by the secular crisis, thus heroic and rationalistic (world-saving combatants and builders as youth, busy “doers” as elders),

• Adaptives see themselves as having been “born too late” to do the great deeds their parents did (hence they must become sensitive, outer-driven, egalitarian negotiators).

Those who like nice, neat tables might like to see all this summarized in such a manner:

Evidence in Favor of the Strauss-Howe Model

Many historians and social commentators, from Haynes Johnson (Sleepwalking Through History) to Mary Pipher (Another Country) to Thomas Friedman (The Lexus and the Olive Tree) to Richard Florida (The Rise of the Creative Class) to Samuel Huntington (The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order), have remarked in their own way on this same sort of historical cyclicity -- without (in most cases) evincing any awareness of Strauss and Howe's model.  For instance, Johnson notes that the pursuit of "conspicuous consumption" has emerged three times in recent American history:  in the Gilden Age of the 1880's, during the Roaring Twenties (pre-Depression Era 1920's), and during the "Me Decade" of the 1980's.  In each case, first-wave Reactives or Nomads were entering adulthood, and the first stirrings of a cultural Autumn or Unraveling were beginning to take shape.  Or note Huntington's assertion that, once every four generations, American culture experiences a time of "creedal passion" (always corresponding with the rise of young Idealists or Prophets).  Summarizing Huntington's thoughts on the matter, Robert Kaplan writes, "Despite all the drugs and sex, Huntington viewed the 1960s demonstrators as essentially Puritans, upset that our institutions were not living up to our ideals. It is the very promise of those ideals—which cannot possibly be fulfilled in any age—that accounts for the 'central agony' in American politics."  Summer is always a time of idealism;  Autumn is always a time of a backlash against idealism, of stark realism, materialism, hedonism, selfism, and survivalism.  All these models and more can be subsumed nicely within Strauss and Howe's model.

Does This Model Imply Historical Determinism?

Not necessarily, but it does suggest the truth of Santayana's famous dictum, "Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it."  Because most of us extrapolate from our own (necessarily brief and limited) experience and presume that life will unfold similarly from that point on, we are often distinctly surprised when the seasons of the saeculum change.  (For instance, those too young to remember firsthand the Vietnam era -- who grew up during the "Long Peace" of 1973-2003 -- may be distinctly surprised to find America suddenly becoming threatened and militaristic.)  The Strauss-Howe cycle is not deterministic in the sense that physical laws of nature are.  But as long as our culture remains historically blind (note:  human history did not begin with the birth of Britney Spears) and prone to excessive overcorrection, the cycle may well continue to turn.

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