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China Politico-Military Doctrines Current Shape of China's Military Military Spending Simulation: China
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Territorial integrity is a base concern of any state, and China has a very long border. Remember that 96% of the Chinese live in the eastern third of the country; the highest mountains are in the south-west, "stepping down" to high, dry plateaus. These are key problem areas:
Xinjiang (see map) contains 12-15 million Uighurs who have
intermittently fought for an independent East Turkestan for almost 150
years. The area became part of China in 1884 (with autonomy)
but came under tighter Communist control in 1949.
China took Tibet by force in 1962 and periodically faces resistance. More than one Dalai Lama (leader of Tibetan Buddhists) has fled to India.
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Overview of border with hot spots
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Land Border Disputes
With Tajikistan - most of border With Russia - two sections (despite 1997 boundary agreement; With India -
With Vietnam - indefinite and disputed border
North Korea: 33-km section of boundary in the Paektu-san (mountain) area |
Map: Stratfor.com (China's New Naval Strategy") Jan 26, 2000. China disputes the maritime boundary dispute with Vietnam in the Gulf of Tonkin. China occupied the Paracel Islands (claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan).
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South China Sea
Shipping routes through the South China Sea connect Northeast Asia with Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Some 41,000 ships a year traverse the Sea-- more than double the number that pass through the Suez Canal and nearly treble the total for the Panama Canal. The Spratly Islands in the southeast quadrant of the sea hold oil and natural gas deposits. Some of the disputed area is within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, as defined by international law, but China issued a map claiming ownership (calling them the Nansha Islands). China, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei claim ownership.
The Spratlys are dangerous due to the shallowness of the waters surrounding the islands and many submerged reefs. Most merchant ships steer clear, but they provide haven for pirates who are notorious in the Sea, especially around the Malaccan Straits.
China would have to develop a "green navy." (see map for the green and blue navy lines) to effectively operate in the South China Sea. Obviously alliances among countries whose warships operate in the area could be a significant factor. |
| Other Concerns
US - China is concerned about US hegemony and attempts to impose capitalist and democratic system on China (a real threat to its sovereignty - economic, cultural, political). Ultimately, the US-China dyad is a serious national security threat. However, it is not as emotional as the fear of Japan. Issues such as human rights, trade, technology-transfer and intellectual property rights are critical, as well as US support for Taiwan. Russia - Ambiguous relationship. Friend or foe? Ally or opponent? Russia is source of most military high-technology, and licenses enable the Chinese to boost their economy. Japan - China fears Japanese strength at a visceral level. China views Japan's military build-up as excessive and totally unreasonable. (This may exemplify the "dead hand of the past" - experience of Japanese occupation during the 1930's and 1940's.) Japan has a large "blue water navy" with more and better ships, planes.
North Korea: Minor concern. Even its nuclear program does not upset China. |
India - China regards India as a threat to its power in Asia. To that end, China insisted that India not be allowed to join APEC (Association of Pacific Economic Community which includes multiple small states such as Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, etc.). Without India, China becomes the unrivaled giant in the association. China
developed close and supportive ties to Myanmar (formerly Burma, to east of
India), and its government (military government accused of major human
rights abuses). China helped construct naval bases in Sittwe (close
to India's major port city of Calcutta), and funded road construction to
link Sittwe with the capital of Yangon (formerly Rangoon). Yangon's
port lies on the Andaman Sea. The Indian navy has its
Far Eastern Naval Command based on the southern tip of the Andaman
Island. See China negotiated an agreement with Egypt in May, 2000, to permit ships of the China Ocean Shipping Company to use port facilities along the Suez Canal, including Port Said.
COSCO also is active in Singapore, which permits policing the southern entrance to the Strait of Malacca. China can be expected to gain access to Pakistani ports. The Chinese presence--even with just a few missile patrol boats--offers a challenge to both India and the US in the Indian Ocean (and Persian Gulf area), just as India challenges China in the South China Sea.
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| Domestic Security
1999 was the year of the crackdown on any group which appeared to present an organized source of dissent (Falun Gong, Catholics, Chinese Democracy Party, wildcat trade unions, social volunteers (environmental, consumers'rights, workers), pensioners, unemployed, etc . Swaine and Tellis point out the political system is "marked by high levels of elite internecine conflict at the apex and weak institutions or processes for mediating and resolving such conflict." Cutbacks in the military may have led to disgruntled officers. Concern about reliability led to rotation of commanders of military regions, and a new rule that prohibits any PLA unit of battalion size to move from one military region to another without express permission of top Communist Party officials. |
The Falun Gong had "a
large following" within the PLA, including high-ranking officials, as
well as within the Party. The effort to cleanse the PLA of
Falun Gong supporters received little notice in the press.
So Stratfor.com (intelligence service on web) expressed concern in March, 2000 when customs officials in Hong Kong seized five Soviet armored personnel carriers which had no import licenses. They were destined for Tianjin, a municipality next to Beijing. The APCs were on a ship which routed through Naples, Haifa and Singapore. The ship's operation was a Beijing shipping company closely tied to the PLA; company officials claimed to know nothing about the shipment. (China does not have any APCs of this type.)
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