Defense & National Security Curriculum Module  Prof. Angela S. Burger,  Political Science Univ of Wisc Colleges: Marathon County aburger@uwc.edu
FOCUS: CHINA	India and Pakistan

This module incorporates several different features which can be disaggregated at will to fit your needs.  Instructors may have widely different limits on how much class time can be taken up for this exercise.

Student Pages contain 

•  Identification of territorial concerns, with maps, which enables faculty to shorten lecture to include material on this page (below).  Even with PowerPoint, students may want to refresh memories by perusing this section.
•  Politico-military doctrines since 1947, (People's War, Professionalism, Limited War, Limited War under High Technology, RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs).
  • Links to research sources on topic;  two levels of research are indicated.  Instructors are free to craft the assignment according to preferences.  The simulation will have more value if some research is required.  These links are on this page, also, with notes on assigning parts of them for projects.  
    • In upper level courses, instructors might want to present some of the analysis  in class, then direct  students to research the goals and priorities of Chinese leaders, the relationships between political and military authorities, etc. 
• Current State of Chinese Military - graphs and data, with links to examples of different types of armies and navies, and comparison of ships.

•  Interactive computer simulation where students (preferably in groups) design a defense budget in terms of procuring the weapons and equipment, that will support their chosen goals for the next 15 years.  A shopping cart is provided with descriptions and pictures of weapons;  many weapons are sold in units rather than as individual items.  (We don't want students buying one tank--that's not realistic.)

Alternate Assignment to students: 

Larger classes;  only the China simulation  Projected Time Line: 1st class- Lecture  assign groups.  3-4 days: Research outside class  (module and its resources).  2 days:  Debate and decision within groups  (f2f or e-discussion); (outside class) 1 to 2 days: group reads draft of paper, revises; orders thru the cart. Outside class. next class: turn in papers.    next class:  Class views and discusses a few alternate choices.	For greater realism and bargaining in simulation,  either assign or let students delegate their colleagues  within the group to take on the role and fight for the  positions of: People's Liberation Army (minus 2nd artillery) 2nd artillery of PLA (nuclear and missiles) Navy (PLAN) PLA Air Force  (PLAAF) Political authorities (Party's Central Military Committee, with Jiang Zemin and others)  Divide the research tasks among the students in the group, noting that Political authorities write the draft of paper.  May want to appoint 6th person as facilitator to ensure everyone does their assignment (and can fill in for a student unavoidably absent).    Debate choices within each group;   write a group paper justifying the choices; fill out shopping cart and submit. .   After the group decision and paper, have a spokesperson from each group (or  from "representative" groups)  lay out the broad lines of goals/strategies/choices (not individual weapons).  Should lead to discussion of (a) probability - political constraints on decision-making, as well as questions on (b) validity or reliability of simulation.  Sensitizing students to broad issues will probably lead them to take closer note of choices China's leaders actually make in next few years, and project from those decisions what China's goals seem to be.
Small classes, only the China simulation  Time line: 1st class - lecture, assign. 3-4 days: research (on module and its resources) 1-2 days - groups confer either in class or electronically next class - groups turn in choices next class:  simulate decision-making in class last class- discuss simulation and choices made	Create 5 small groups (2-5), each assigned one of these roles    PLA,  2nd artillery,   PLAN,   PLAAF, and  the Communist Party Central Military Committee.   Have each group do  research (dividing up sources--links--among group members), concentrating on the implications for their role.   Have each group develop their preferred military budget, and copy these for the class.   Schedule one or more class periods for a simulation, where the groups must argue and defend their respective positions;  the goal is not consensus, but to sway the Central Military Committee to change its position to theirs.
Individual work Time Line: 1st class - lecture, assign 4-7 days: research using module and its resources. Variable time. next class-submit shopping cart  that day or next: turn in paper next class: discussion in class	Require  research before choosing weapons in shopping cart (amount can vary) Write  short paper (5-8 pages) specifying their analysis of threat, their goals for next 10-15 years, their willingness to support political doctrines such as RMA, and an explanation of how their procurement choices "fit" their analysis and goals.    Take 2-3 of papers and either lay out the argument, or have students do it, and proceed to discuss probabilities, etc.  Students with different viewpoints will argue their positions vociferously--which should help all students understand the kind of debate that does take place within inner circles of decision-making in the PRC.

 

  to top

Frequently Asked Questions

• Why is the budget set at $8.3 billion?  
  • Realistic guesstimate.  Shambaugh and Yang (China's Military in Transition.  Oxford, 1997) say that one-third of the defense spending is for procurement.   Arthur S. Ding, in that volume agrees.  What is the level of spending?  
    •  The highest estimate was calculated in the SIPRI yearbook in 1999:  the "total" spent on the military in 1998, in constant-1995 dollars, was $141.1 billion.  The official budget in 1989 dollars was $44.045 billion.  SIPRI Yearbook 1999, p. 348.   
    • Gill and O'Hanlon (Brookings) say say the 1999 budget was somewhere between $35 and $65 billion.  One-third would be $11.6 to $21.6 billion.  But, in an article in Lilley and Shambaugh, (China's Military Faces the Future.  ME Sharpe, 1999) Gill says China would need to spend $22-39 Billion annually on procurement to modernize to a level to match major powers,  and they cannot,  This suggests that the actual budget is closer to $35 than $65 billion.  
    • Stratfor.com (Intelligence site) reported 1998 military spending as $37.5 Billion;  one-third would be $12.5 billion. 
    • China Today specified the 2000 budget as  US $14.5 Billion, which would mean only about $5 billion would be available for procurement.  That figure is low, probably being the "official" figure which does not include procurement or a lot of other expenses (according to Ding, Gill, Shambaugh, etc.)     
    • If we take the Gill/O'Hanlon and Stratfor.com  as reasonable, why not suggest a  $40 billion budget for 2000 (13.3B for procurement).  The shopping cart has to be a reasonable size, so we need to calculate how much should be reserved for China to buy things not in the shopping cart (radar, small arms, reconnaissance vehicles, torpedos, numerous other missiles, trucks, etc.)    "Top of the head" estimate:  at least $5 billion should be reserved for these types of purchases.   That leaves $8.3 billion for students to allocate.  

   

• Why not just buy one of everything?    Discourage this.   If students do try to buy almost everything, they, without realizing it,  will be
  • buying some really old equipment  
  • shorting the Army and boosting the Navy.  (Some of the items in the shopping cart are "wish lists." )  
  • not addressing goals and priorities, which we wish them to ponder.   
    • For example, does China benefit by buying a VERY expensive aircraft carrier, or several ships of smaller sizes?   
    • Should China focus on ICBMs to target the US and Europe, or on IRBMs for regional clout?  
    • Should they purchase long-range bombers (targeting who?) or shorter-range fighter-bombers?  
    • Should they make or "buy Chinese"?  
    • Note  "upgrades" can  ease their conscience as they try to allocate scarce resources .  
    • A great deal depends on the assessment that war is likely within 2-3 years (and who with), as opposed to 10-20 years.   You may have to let slip the information that China needs to replace 5000 antiquated tanks, and thousands of infantry-fighting vehicles.  Buying 100 may not be sufficient.  
  • FYI:  Mulvern and Yang (People's Liberation Army in the Information Age, 1999) guesstimate that 80% of defense money still goes to "People's War" equipment, 15% to "Limited wars on periphery," and 5% to RMA.  

     

• What do you mean by "strategic choices" for budget?  

  Students have a few discrete choices in strategy - depending on whether the simulated goal is

  • Power Projection or Border Defense (assuming Constabulary)
    • Land or Sea
    • Target Great Powers or Regional neighbors (which neighbors/borders?)
  • Readiness - Time - Conflict expectation calculation
    • Short-term or Long-term?
    • Threat vs Military action?

  For example:     

  • Emphasis on mountain warfare (west-southwest border), internal and external 
    • Tactical limits on what one does to quell rebellion and get people to accept government's authority.  "Scorched earth" is  not the best choice.   
    • Neighbors can be threatened with troop movements (sabre-rattling);  can engage in border skirmishes (with whom?);   need transport, artillery upgrades, and relevant missiles.     
  • Emphasis on plains (eastern one-third) and  domestic security: 
    • strength the PLA - tanks (they need to replace 5000 old ones), armored personnel carriers
    • limit Navy - purchase smaller patrol boats and maybe a frigate
    • Buy helicopters, fighters and fighter-bombers, not transport or long-range bombers 
  • Enhance naval capabilities to project power;  
    •  Buy more ships and larger ships;   Expand air force to provide air cover for naval vessels.  Buy short-range missiles to protect  coastal waters.  Cut back army (expect new paramilitary forces to cope with internal security).        
  • Invade and conquer Taiwan within 10 years
    •  Buy amphibious vessels and transport ships, airborne forces.  Buy subs, missile-ships and planes to deny Taiwan Straits to US and neutralize ROC.  Must have  AWACS.  Etc. Etc.  Let students work it out.  
  • Defensive & future-oriented strategy (NO military action over Taiwan or with Great Powers)
    • acquire C⁴I, Rapid Response Units, missiles; strengthen  Air Force,  high technology offense and defense.  (Use older tanks; upgrades rather than purchases; create new "rapid response units," for example.) Navy?  Depends on goals after 10 years.  

    Hard copy cover sheet for assignment (optional)       

    to top

  Lecture Notes:  Background on broad military options for any country, 

Key points to make in lecture:

• Decisions on defense and military should be guided by the foreign policy objectives, goals, and priorities of political (often civilian) authorities.   Insert your preferred analysis of goals/priorities.  

  However, in the real world,

  • established bureaucracies often wish continuation of  past policies/choices (the "iron hand"), and can  develop and promote their own preferences on desired weapons and strategies, which may be at odds with the  direction desired by top political leaders.  Stress the often difficult bargaining between political, civilian and military interests, with significant lag-time. Furthermore,
  • "readiness" calculations,  based on assumptions  about the need or likelihood for immediate military action,  play a significant role in current choices.  

 

• Main Roles of Military Forces:  Constabulary, Border Defense, Force Projection

(Note that the more advanced military also performs the lesser roles and thus will need that type of equipment also) 

• Constabulary Forces protect and defend the state and/or government.  

Its armies put down secessionist efforts, quell rebellions and  civil unrest.  The forces are useful in coping with natural as well as civil disasters.   The nature of armaments depends on where the army is needed:  combat  in mountains  calls for different strategies and weapons than  low-lying jungles;  operation in cities to break-up demonstrations and riots differs from combat in the hinterland. 

Its " brown water" navies protect geostrategic political and economic claims in the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones (200 nautical miles from coast:  see map for extent of EEZ in part of Pacific, which is one PowerPoint slide and also on student site). The most useful craft are relatively small surface vessels such as Corvettes, Patrol Ships, Fast-attack craft (or hydrofoil), and large patrol craft.  If the area to be policed is large and wide, frigates may be useful.  Naval ships are supplemented with land-based aircraft which survey large areas of sea and report suspicious targets to the ships.   (In some states a coast guard performs these functions, but in the Third World these are likely to be part of the navy.) (You can see value of students having a diagram of different sized ships to understand this.)

Its Air Forces support the army and navy, transporting personnel and supplies, providing reconnaissance, defending its own troops, attacking the enemy (which may be citizens of the state), etc.  It is less likely to be involved in dog fights with other fighters.  It is more likely to need the ability to land on short runways, grassy fields or rough terrain.      

•  Border Defense Military

Its army is equipped to defend its border from invasion by foreign military forces and to cope with sudden, large flows of refugees.  It can also probe the borders of neighboring countries, and occasionally can mount an attack on neighbors, in the border area.  The type of equipment needed depends on the terrain.  

Its coastal defense or "green water" navies defend against attack from the sea.    The characteristics of a coastal defense navy  depends on vulnerability, enemy-capability, and financial resources.  However  the bulk of the navy may consist of small ships with limited range and  small crews.  They must have combat capability.  Because prevention of amphibious landings are part of the mission, small subs (diesel powered), fast attack craft plus missiles, frigates and destroyers are common.   Land-based aircraft and small submarines  supplement the surface naval forces, and  land-based missiles and guns  augment the effort.    Mines may be laid to reduce the number of ships required.

Its air force requires more fighters and fighter-bombers in addition to transport and reconnaissance planes.  Planes must be able to handle the  terrain --whether  high, mountainous, and cold, or on hot dusty plains, or in jungles.  

• Power Projection Military

Its armies are combat-oriented, and considerably larger in size to be able to handle all three roles.  It must have supportive navy and air force for transport of personnel, equipment, supply and re-supply.  Reliable and more sophisticated  communication is needed as well as the ability to coordinate large units of all three services in concerted attack (or defense).   Armor and missiles of longer-range and higher fire-power are called for.   Range of equipment--whether tanks, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled guns, missile launchers--becomes critical, as does the ability to re-supply fuel and armaments.    In third world countries, special high-technology units may be created which can respond very quickly.  

Its "blue water" navies can launch attacks against other countries on sea or land.  Very few navies have world-wide ability;  most have regional or even local capability.  Larger ships are required:  aircraft carriers,  cruisers, submarines (including nuclear-powered) as well as destroyers, frigates and other smaller vessels.  Missile-capability is more likely on all of these.  Helicopters for ASW (anti-submarine warfare) become more important.  Amphibious ships and landing craft are needed, along with tankers, and a host of ships carrying supplies.  A naval air wing is supported, as much as possible, from the air force.  Even small navies, with aging equipment and limited in type,  can have some ability to project power against an even smaller enemy.  

The air force will have more bombers, and longer-range fighter-bombers, and will carry missiles.  It will have more and larger transport planes, more reconnaissance ability and a higher level of technological sophistication, especially in terms of electronic warfare, communications, and armaments.  While it has a crucial combat role, it also must support army and navy, which requires coordination.  War games are more frequent, and of larger scale;  pilots have more hours of training.   Coordination exercises are common--for paratroopers, rescue, and ground-support.  Even a small air force can be effective against a state which has even less (or is not as well coordinated.)    

Major types of ships and characteristics  (also on student page: through  Current Shape of China's Military)

Example of Constabulary, Coastal Defense, and Power Projection Navies  (ditto)

Example of Different Types of Armies  (ditto)

 

Class Aids

• PowerPoint 98 lecture/discussion on national security issues of China  (one lecture/discussion)
  • Classification of constabulary, border defense, and power projection military
  • Suggestions  on how/where to introduce class  discussion (in notes)
  • maps on page;  second "moreMapsofChina" (PowerPoint98)  
  • "Notes Pages" carry  "lecture" and examples.  

   

• Some of the information has been given here (specifically the categories of military types and discussion item on buying vs. producing weapons).   The maps and information on border (and sea) concerns is on the student page as China's Internal (for faculty who do not wish to take up those topics in the classroom).  That is the initial student page, but you can tell students to click on other sites.   
  • Might want to print and pass out chart of different ship-sizes (from Morgan's Porpoises Among the Whales,  Honolulu: East-West Center Special Report #2, 1994, p10), which would help students who have no knowledge of ships.  However that chart is also on PowerPoint and the student site (Current Shape of China's military- links to  Different types of Navies).

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Class Discussion Question

Policy Question:  Should you buy or make weapons?  

(Note:  Design/produce differs from License/Produce and Assemble-from-kit. Be prepared to make distinction between "buying used" or "buying older models" versus buying new, and top-of-the-line (if a Third World country can).  

Ask students for pros and cons of each (write on board or transparency; in PPt, type in one-three word identification);  be prepared to give examples validating their concerns. (Ppt "notes" gives some examples):

Advantages of Purchase  (Not exhaustive) More sophisticated equipment enables military to "leapfrog" in development.    Weapons are better made, of higher quality,  than that which could be locally produced.  Even in producing under license, technical skills may be lacking. Example: the subs made under license in India cost twice as much as those made in Germany, and were long-delayed.  Indian shipyard had problems making waterproof welds for the hull.   Get access to training by military in the seller-country.  Upgrades military skills and may acquire pointers on tactics and strategies.    If training shows problems with the  equipment (perhaps due to temperature or other climatic conditions), it is easier to get the seller to correct the problem.  Their own people validate the problem.   Contract can be negotiated to include armaments, ammunition, training equipment as well as trainers.

Disadvantages of Purchase Purchasing older models or  Purchase means new frames without current high-tech features in navigation, avionics, defense, offense.  (Sellers don't want to face conflict against their own top-of-the-line equipment.) Sellers may refuse to sell certain items --Russia has refused to sell China long-range bombers;  the US refused to sell Taiwan Aegis cruisers with AWACS. Costly for countries with limited defense budgets;  helps the economy of the seller, not the purchaser. Seller can restrict sales of equipment, and spare parts, when seller disapproves of policies adopted of buyers: US banned sales to India and Pakistan from 1992-95, and again in 1998 when both tested nuclear weapons. May have a "no-sale to others" clause, which makes item more costly.  (There is a pecking order of sales in arms.  Bangladesh buys old/used Pak equipment, for example.) Items bought from different countries may not be easy to integrate into viable system. Seller make make demands that are awkward although not unreasonable from seller's view: USSR demanded that Soviet ships be kept in completely separate command (in East India) from European ships & planes (in West India). Russia did not want India to buy Russian platform and fill it with Western equipment.

Advantages of Local Production Boosts economic growth Increases  employment, and creates new urban, industrial technical class Upgrades skills of workers "Learn by doing" means eventual strides in design and operation. Custom-design equipment for special needs Enables export-market to earn foreign exchange Enables greater policy-independence due to self-sufficiency in equipment  Sovereignty

Disadvantages of Local Production Poorly made and designed equipment noisy subs (China) tanks with firing problems (India) Question on cost-effectiveness Local may cost more than import, as in case of German sub made in India. Expert advice on design and production can be withdrawn. May not be able to figure out remedy to problems of production or performance Can make part, but still have to buy the rest (i.e., build the hull but buy the engines, the navigation, the missiles, etc.)

to top

Select Links to Chinese security and military doctrine   Michael Pillsbury,  CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ( National Defense University Press, Jan. 2000),    [241 pp-tell students not to print it] for Intro courses:    Prologue and ch. 6;   for upper-level:  Prologue, ch 1, 6  and others by choice.   Note ch 2 makes argument that US didn't really win Gulf War; Iraq lost it.  Weaknesses in  US military  might be useful for another assignment.  Michael D. Swaine & Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000),  For Intro courses: Ch 4 essential;   also useful - Summary, Conclusions For upper-level: entire (print chapter by chapter) Charles F. Hawkins, THE FOUR FUTURES:  Competing Schools of Military Thought inside the PLA (Taiwan Security Research)

Scott M. Leeb,  "China and the 21st Century" in  STRENGTH THROUGH COOPERATION:     Military Forces in the  Asia-Pacific Region, Institute for National Strategic Studies, 2000. [Not on student page:  Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China to the US Congress, June 2000.] Bates Gill and Michael O'Hanlon, "China's Hollow Military,"  Brookings. ]           Recent Intelligence and News clips of interest - do try www.stratfor.com Jane's Security News "China's Growing Problem with Xinjiang," June 13, 2000. Stratfor.com  "China Targets Taiwan’s Wallet 0117 GMT, 000627 " Stratfor.com.   –: Myanmar: Where the Indian and Chinese Navies Meet." 2141 GMT, 000127 Stratfor.com. India Challenges China in South China Sea 26 April 2000 Stratfor.com. "In Beijing, The Signs of a New Strategic Partnership 3 March 2000"

 

 

• China Military Spending simulation

 

Buttons from                         aburger@uwc.edu  and tell me your experiences and suggestions